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NBA trade value rankings, King James version
NBA trade value rankings, King James version
By Bill Simmons
Page 2
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Updated: February 12, 2009
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 Flash: http://www.youtube.com/v/V_h7Lm7C9Nk&hl=en&fs=1
See that YouTube clip embedded at right? A friend of mine passed along the link Monday. It's John Tesh performing on Catalina Island in 1997, only he's dressed like a waiter on a cruise ship and looks like a mutant James Van Der Beek. The clip starts with Tesh pontificating to the crowd, then playing a message that he left for himself with ... (wait for it) ... the original beats for the "NBA on NBC" music. I think he means to be ironic, but there's something non-ironic about his quest to be ironic. Again, he's dressed like a waiter on a cruise ship. And I thought the clip ended there, but no! At the 1:15 mark, Tesh starts emphatically dribbling an invisible basketball as the crowd applauds in rhythm -- you heard me, air dribbling -- then prances over to his real piano and bangs out the "NBA" song with a 25-person orchestra.
You know what happens next, my friends? Magic! That's what. Pay special attention to the violinist -- I'm definitely hiring him for my second and fourth weddings. I have watched this clip 23 times in the last 48 hours, and as soon as I hand in this column, I'm going for 24ths. I hereby bequeath John Tesh's Catalina clip as the official YouTube intro of America's favorite running column gimmick: "Who has the highest NBA Trade Value?"
I spent two solid work days researching this year's column; made a vague attempt to understand the parameters of PER before giving up; treated HoopsHype's salary Web site like Dirk Diggler treated Rollergirl (note: had to make the mandatory "Boogie Nights" reference early so we don't have to think about it); wrote three different drafts; bounced so many ideas and opinions off my buddy House that he decided he was my "Trade Value muse"; deliberated the question, "Who should be higher, Duncan or Wade?" longer than the Supreme Court deliberated on Roe vs. Wade; and took long enough to decide on a final list that two players (initials: K.D. and A.J.) moved a combined total of 26 spots between my first list and my last list.
THE RULES
A quick recap of the rules:
1. Salaries matter. Over this season and the next two, would you rather pay David West $27 million or Amare Stoudemire $43 million?
2. Age matters. Would you rather have Chauncey Billups for the next five seasons or Rajon Rondo for the next 12?
3. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications but with luxury-tax ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, "We'll trade you Player X for Player Y," would Team B make the deal?
4. Concentrate on degrees. Neither San Antonio nor Orlando would make a Howard-Duncan trade, but the Spurs would at least say, "Wow, Dwight Howard's available?" and have a meeting about it while the Magic would say, "There's no frickin' way we're trading Dwight Howard." That counts in the big scheme of things.
5. The list runs in reverse order (Nos. 40 to 1). So if Carmelo comes in at No. 16, players 1 through 15 are all players about whom the Nuggets would probably say, "We hate giving up 'Melo, but we definitely have to consider this deal." And they wouldn't trade him straight-up for any player listed between Nos. 17 and 50.
For a quick refresher of the rules, check the sidebar to the right. Here's a list of 2007-08 incumbents who couldn't crack either the 2009 list or honorable mention: Leandro Barbosa (No. 50 last year) is the sixth man of the "Mike D'Antoni's offense made me seem 38 percent better than I really am" All-Stars ... I'm a little over the Tayshaun Prince (44) thing ... Michael Redd (42) blew out his ACL and cemented Wisconsin's claim to "most depressing sports winter" ... Elton Brand (41) made an unforgettable leap from the "highest value" to "top-three worst contracts" list ... Tyson Chandler (40) has played like absolute dog crap and might be Exhibit A for the "Wait, are we sure the Hornets like Byron Scott?" debate ... Marcus Camby (38) might be the most bummed-out Clipper of all time (he always seems one dumb Al Thornton shot away from just walking off the court and never coming back) ... Rasheed Wallace (37) isn't as good as he used to be but doesn't realize it yet ... Allen Iverson (36) had a good run ... Chris Kaman (35) might have been kidnapped by Annie Wilkes ... Shawn Marion (33) was exposed Barbosa-style in Miami but remains a sensational defender ... Josh Howard (31) smoked away his spot ... Tracy McGrady (28) went south faster than Chris Brown's endorsement career ... Gilbert Arenas (27) is the new C-Webb (2004 franchise-murdering version) ... Baron Davis (15) forgot to take his jumper with him when he left Golden State ... Carlos Boozer (11) gets a "Trade Value DNP" because he's an injured free-agent-to-be and is definitely leaving Utah, so basically, I have no idea what to do with him.
See how many incumbents we lost? And you wondered why we downsized from 50 to 40. Our toughest 2009 omissions go from "not so tough" to "agonizingly tough."
Monta Ellis: Let's add this to the collective bargaining agreement: If you crash a motorcycle or scooter after signing a big-money contract, every living NBA player from the 1940s, '50s and '60s gets to split your salary for one season.
Andrea Bargnani: His ceiling? Memo Okur. Is this a good thing for the No. 1 overall pick of a 2007 draft that included LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy? Probably not.
Rudy Gay and Rodney Stuckey: Either 1-2 or 2-1 for this year's "Most Overrated Young Player" Award. Although Trent from Royal Oak, Mich., makes a good point: "Stuckey was drafted with the pick acquired from Orlando (aka the Darko pick) and was the sole reason for the Chauncey trade. He's potential redemption for two horrific moves directly tied to Dumars. He ain't going nowhere." Good point. I'd put him higher if he played defense.
Luol Deng: Signs of life lately. I caught the Bulls in person recently and it's astonishing that they aren't good or even half-decent. Of all the lousy coaching hirings recently (Terry Porter, P.J. Carlesimo, Michael Curry, Sam Vincent, Reggie Theus, Marc Iavaroni), what's funny is Vinny Del Negro was by far the worst. It's even scarier in person when you're sitting behind the Bulls' bench; I know a reader once compared Vinny's coaching to Shooter's taking over Hickory High that first time, but actually, it's more like watching an old person getting ready to go through a metal detector at an airport. Just complete confusion and panic and a lot of stopping and starting and glancing around. I feel bad even making fun of it. Let's just move on.
NBA TRADE MACHINE
Larry Hughes to Washington? Amare Stoudemire to Portland?
Make it all happen with the NBA Trade Machine.
• NBA Trade Machine
• Listranker: How does SportsNation size up Bill's top 40?
J.J. Hickson: My favorite under-the-radar rookie and a legitimate 2009 Playoff X Factor. If he played for the Lakers, L.A. fans would be comparing him to a young Karl Malone right now.
Paul Millsap: Would have cracked the top 30 if not for his expiring (and dirt-cheap) contract, which makes him a Trade Value DNP since he'd never get traded for soon-to-be-irrelevant reasons. Let's see what kind of contract he gets this summer. I love him for "four years, $32 million" ... not as much for "five years, $60 million."
Jason Thompson: I mocked him on draft day and he shoved it in my face like a cream pie. Top-notch energy guy, good defender, lots to like. You know, if Michael Beasley wasn't such a colossal disappointment and semi-fraud, the 2008 draft could have ranked among the best ever (and certainly superior to the more ballyhooed '07 class). Maybe it's not loaded with Hall of Famers like the '84 or '98 drafts, but the list of rooks ranging from "definitely a future starter" to "future multiple All-Star" is abnormally high. Put it this way: That draft was so good that poor Alexis Ajinca stands out like Dan Aykroyd in the "We Are The World" video right now. He should switch jersey numbers to No. 32 so we can call him "32AA's." When I think of the worst possible bra size, I want to think of Alexis Ajinca.
Jeff Green: Great teammate, tough as nails, gives a crap, does whatever you need. He's the anti-Beasley. What frightens me is that The Team That Shall Not Be Named somehow has become my favorite non-Boston team to watch. Love the Durant-Green-Westbrook foundation, love Scotty Brooks (who knew???), love the spirit of their crowds, love their style of play (attack off every miss, which is exactly how the Bulls should play). It continues to be cruel and unfair that this couldn't have happened in Seattle.
Rudy Fernandez: Cheap contract, tons of skills and the female fans dig him. Although it's hard to evaluate the Trade Value of Portland players fairly, because Kevin Pritchard is delusionally convinced every Blazers' ceiling ranges from "Hall of Fame" to "One of the top 10 players of all-time." Pritchard always gives you the feeling that he calls Michael Lewis once a week trying to convince him to write a "Moneyball" type book about the NBA ... with Pritchard as the Billy Beane figure, of course. He's just about worked the last nerve of the other 29 GMs. And that's an understatement. I don't know, I kind of enjoy him. There's no question Jeremy Piven will play him in "Moneyball II: The Kevin Pritchard Story." None.
THE B.S. REPORT
Every year, before he finalizes the "Trade Value" list, Bill argues about the various candidates with his buddy Joe House.
Check out the debate on Bill's podcast.
Eric Gordon: Every Clippers fan feels Gordon is like one of those kids from a bad family who has a ton of potential, but there's still an overwhelming chance that his parents (in this case, Donald Sterling and Mike Dunleavy) will screw him up. And actually, that's how this will probably play out. Ladies and gentlemen, your Los Angeles Clippers!
Kevin Love: Bill Laimbeer 2.0 with better passing skills and without the Cobra Kai streak. You have to love a country where Love's best rookie card (Upper Deck's '09 SPX set, the signed autographed jersey card) goes for one-eighth the money of Beasley's card ... and yet, Miami could offer Beasley for Love right now and Minnesota would make a face and hang up. Whatever.
Russell Westbrook: The rookie MVP of the Table Team for guys who bring a ton of stuff to the table, but also take a fair share of stuff off it ... but still, he wins you over in the end. I like him. He is definitely not a point guard. This much we know. I'd like to be the chairman of the "Is He A Point Guard Or Not?" Committee. I have a rare talent for quickly spotting breast implants, dentures, bad toupees and shooting guards masquerading as point guards.
Jameer Nelson: The toughest omission. With that contract (five years, $33 million), he easily would have made the cut if he wasn't out with a shoulder (copyright: Al Michaels).
OK, let's get to the top 40. But before we do, allow me a little air dribbling first.
(Slamming my hand down emphatically on an invisible basketball.)
(Still doing it.)
(Still doing it.)
(You fired up yet? You feeling it? YOU FEELING IT?????)
BEST DEALS
The 16 most cap-appealing NBA contracts that aren't rookie deals:
16. Carl Landry, three years, $9m
15. Jameer Nelson, five years, $33.6m
14. John Salmons, three years, $16.3m
13. Travis Outlaw, two years, $8m
12. Kendrick Perkins, three years, $12.8m
11. Udonis Haslem, two years, $13.7m
10. Marcus Camby, two years, $15.6-$20m
9. Roger Mason, two years, $7.3m
8. Ron Artest: one year, $8.45m
7. Mehmet Okur, one year, $8.5m
6. Luis Scola, two years, $6.5m
5. Caron Butler, three years, $30.3m
4. Devin Harris, four years, $36m
3. Manu Ginobili, two years, $20.6m
2. David West, three years, $27.2m
1. Hedo Turkoglu, one year, $6.84m
All right, let's get this party started ...
Group K: "Ridiculous For You And For Us"
40. Chauncey Billups
Remains the same "slightly past-his-prime, slightly overpaid and genuinely overrated crunch-time" guy; it's just that he got traded to one of the most selfish, me-first, rudderless playoff teams in recent memory. Now he's getting the credit for Denver's "turnaround" with nobody mentioning the other factors (Carmelo is a better all-around player, Nene has been shockingly effective, the Nuggets' bench is better, the pieces complement each other, etc.). Here's my theory: Denver was like a post-college buddy who had a horrendous girlfriend, finally broke up with her, then married the next cute girl who liked him. Does that mean he married poorly? Not necessarily. She might have been perfect. But deep down, we all knew he was so ecstatic to be away from the previous witch that he would have fallen head over heels for anyone. So that's what Chauncey turned out to be for the Nuggets -- the pleasant follow-up girlfriend to the nightmare witch. If Denver had swapped Iverson for Kidd, the same "turnaround" would have happened. I am convinced.
39. Hedo Turkoglu
His last season of being the "underrated and underpaid go-to guy on a contender." I actually thought he was better last season than this season, but whatever. Check out the '02 Kings again, an entertaining team that never ended up winning the title but secured a place in our hearts (as well as the All-Ugly Hall of Fame). Back in 2002, did you ever think Hedo would be their most relevant player from 2007-09? In a million years?
38. Devin Harris
Hey, TNT, here's a list of "people to show after every basket Harris scores in the 2009 All-Star Game" (in descending order from "most funny" to "not funny"): Mark Cuban, Jason Kidd, Ric Bucher, Avery Johnson, Dirk Nowitzki, Mark Cuban a second time, Marc Stein, Dikembe Mutombo, the stars from "Trust Me," Mark Cuban a third time, Holly Hunter, Marc Stein a second time, Matthew Lillard, John Havlicek.
37. Andris Biedrins
Shopped a little too vigorously by Don Nelson lately for my liking. Does Nellie realize Biedrins doesn't turn 23 until April? (As opposed to Yi Jianlian, who turns 33?) This remains the most logical match for Amare if Biedrins' base-year deal didn't screw up any Trade Machine scenario. So Amare, you don't like playing defense? Good news! You have something in common with the rest of my starting five! Which reminds me...
Group J: "Everything Must Go! Everything Must Go!"
36. Amare Stoudemire
Bruce in Phoenix recently begged me, "Can you hold off on the Trade Value column until some GM is dumb enough to offer us too much for Amare? I don't want them to know that he sucks now!" Hey, Bruce? I think they know. Why do you think you're getting so many pu-pu platter offers? It would help if Amare grabbed a rebound or switched correctly on a high screen more than twice per quarter. I still say the Amare era is salvageable -- stick the kid on a team with a good point guard (Chicago?), tell him to just worry about putting the biscuit in the basket (New York? G-State?), or trade for him and say, "We love you, you're our franchise guy" (Sacramento? Memphis? Indiana?) and I think he'd start slapping up 29-9s again. With a smile on his face.
Group I: "Cost-Effective Building Blocks"
[+] Enlarge
Wendi Kaminski/NBAE/Getty Images
Lee's low salary means he will basically hustle for food.
35. David Lee
The latest D'Antoni salary bumpee is averaging a 20-13 with 56 percent shooting since New Year's. Yeah, he's a lousy defender ... but should we really pick nits when he's on the books for $1.76 million this season and $2.68 million next? The Knicks have settled sexual harassment suits for three times that much. (No, seriously. They have. It wasn't a joke.) By the way, he's one of only two American white guys to crack the top 40.
34. Brook Lopez
And here's the other. That has to rank among Brook's career highlights, right up there with making the Elite Eight, getting drafted in the lottery and beating his brother two months ago in a "Who can bounce higher on a king-sized bed without spilling an ice cream sundae?" contest at The Plaza Hotel.
33. O.J. Mayo
Here's a gifted kid who could have become a Pippen-like defender with 3-point range, only he's developing losing habits and reprehensible shot selection as The Man on a hopeless lottery team. The shame of all shames is Miami could have just taken him at No. 2 -- Riley even wanted to, but he couldn't summon the requisite testicular fortitude -- and the Juice would have ended up as the Pippen to Wade's MJ. Instead, he's hoisting up bad 3s as Marc Gasol curses under his breath in Spanish and Gay looks like he's thinking to himself, "The next time I get the ball, it's going up and I don't care if I'm trapped in the corner with three guys on me." As Michael Corleone screamed after the Joey Zaza assassination, "This is not ... WHAT I WANTED!" (Wait a second, did I just quote "Godfather III?" I'm clearly running out of movies and need to retire soon.) I knocked him down to No. 33 even though he's talented and can't be blamed for what's happening.
32. Al Horford
31. LaMarcus Aldridge
Quality young forwards with great contracts on winning teams. But you never know about the young'uns. Take it from the guy who once proclaimed that young Amare Stoudemire was the second coming of Moses Malone.
Group H: "You'll Have To Bowl Us Over, But We're Listening"
30. Kevin Martin
Seems a little high until you remember he's averaging 27 a game with 46 percent shooting on 3s since New Year's. Wouldn't you try to pry him from the Maloofs right now? If I'm Houston's Daryl Morey during the All-Star break, I'm buying Patron shots for the Maloofs until 3 a.m. Sunday, then offering them T-Mac and a 2009 No. 1 for Martin and Kenny Thomas' deal that expires in 2010. Then again, Daryl went to MIT -- he probably couldn't do three shots without passing out or giving away Luis Scola straight up for Channing Frye. Bad plan.
Speaking of Kenny, did anyone see the irony of the Kings' retiring C-Webb's number last weekend even though his lavish extension genuinely murdered their franchise for the last six years of this decade? Continuing the girlfriend analogies, the poor Kings were like a buddy who had the greatest, most life-altering girlfriend for five years ... right until she gained 30 pounds, gave him VD (in this case, Kenny's unwieldy contract) and left him relatively destitute until 2010. But seriously, thanks for the memories, C-Webb! This is your night!
29. Caron Butler
Just like Martin, an enticing piece for a contender ... and really, for us as well, because warriors like Tuff Juice should be in the playoffs every year. Three ideas from the Picasso of the Trade Machine: Butler to Houston for Luis Scola, Shane Battier and a 2011 No. 1; Butler, Juan Dixon and Darius Songaila's crappy contract to Atlanta for Marvin Williams, Speedy Claxton's not-quite-as-crappy contract, Acie Law and a future No. 1; and Butler plus Etan Thomas' crappy contract to Portland for Travis Outlaw, Raef LaFrentz's Expiring Contract (you knew it was coming) and all the insurance money that comes with Raef's Expiring Contract.
(Important note: My hopes for a logical Butler trade might be unrealistic since you can obtain a free "Fire Ernie [Grunfeld]" T-shirt simply by e-mailing a dude at [email protected]. I'm not making this up. When some random fan is giving away FREE T-shirts to get his GM fired, you know something has gone horribly wrong.)
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Scott Cunningham/NBAE/Getty Images
Josh's love affair with 3-pointers is pretty one-sided.
28. Josh Smith
Tailed off less than expected after inking that worrisome $58 million extension ... although he's the captain of the 2009 "Why The Hell Are You Shooting 3s?" All-Stars, missing 41 of 54 this season (24 percent) and missing 324-for-438 for his career (26 percent).
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